2020 Covid19 金融市场动荡

本想过上几个月安宁的产假,却赶上了这般历史性事件。借频繁喂娃的时间重温了两本各自经典却在一定程度上存在矛盾的书:Nassim Nicholas Taleb的《黑天鹅效应》以及Howard Marks的《掌握市场周期》。

有几点和当前剧烈震荡的市场相关的体会:

1. 短期未来走势是无法持续正确预期的

2. 假如投资人只是追随市场公认的共识意见,那么他也只能拿到市场公认水平的报酬,不会有突出的成果。大胆的用偏离趋势的方法做推测,假如对了,会非常有价值。但这种推论大多时候会是错误的,没有常胜将军。

3. 投资操作很大程度上是场心理战,太过关注每天的价格变化容易导致非理性操作,过分焦虑无处可逃却误读了周期中的信号

4. 气球放气的速度要远远快过于充气。在全球股票廉价大卖场的今天,谁可以参与终将上演的V字形反弹?

这一轮全球经济急刹车的黑天鹅事件以后,我们将迎来的是一个进一步去全球化、贫富差距继续扩大的社会。重新分析现金流的可持续性最重要。

一个月前的你,后悔没有买够入场?还是现在的你,后悔当初追涨现在套牢?无论哪一个你,现在都得到了平起平坐重新冷静分析的机会。

乐观之后的保守,悲观之后的积极。了解当前在周期的处境,不盲目地受情绪影响,保持流通性及现金流,适时微调投资组合才是长久之计。Stay calm and carry on.

转机

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一顺百顺;祸不单行。生命的节拍有时候真的很难掌控。这一次,不论是抓上了幸运的尾巴,还是终于熬出头的触底反弹,生活总之算是有了回上正轨的迹象,或者像英语里常说的“看到了隧道尽头的阳光”。

那一刻得知重担终于可以减轻的瞬间是一种很难描述的感觉,不是想笑,或者想哭,而是一种想把重金属音乐放到最大声然后发自内心狂喊的一种释放。随之而来的却是一点怀疑,惊恐自己是不是在做梦,猜想老天是不是又在戏弄自己。成功这个词汇真的又可以回到我的字典里么?

人生不如意的时候很难相信自己,所以会容易想找个依赖,但又不想成为任何人的负担,所以可以说是一种难以进退的僵局。僵局之中却是一个重新认识自我的机会 —- 谁是我真正可以信赖的人,什么是可以令我找回真我的事; 有些争吵真的很不值得,有些所谓的追求真的也只是浮夸。

人们常说失去的时候才会懂得珍惜,那么失而复得的时候呢?

证明自己值得拥有吧。

虚幻现实

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2016年4月,赌城拉斯维加斯给我的感觉永远是个谜,是种和真实社会的隔阂。无论你再穷再富,财富都转变成了一种虚幻的游戏。浮华、奢靡、贪婪、侥幸,倒是一个认识人性劣根性的好机会。从另一方面想,平日的拮据、计较、嫉妒、保守,也在这里得到暂时的释放,在这个沙漠之中的虚拟城市里似乎更能接触到那个贝壳下的真我。是真是假,又由何判断呢?

Repost 经历了很多,记录了太少

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9/8/2015
就从今年的劳动节开始吧。美国的劳动节在九月,通常也标志暑期的结束。 多数的纽约人会选择离开城市,到长岛或者新泽西的海滩上晒太阳,或者在自家后院搞烧烤派对而度过。另外每年劳动节这个小长假期也是美国网球公开赛的第一个周末,也是很多晋级十六强过程中一些种子选手意外出局的时候,很多游客包括纽约人会专程到皇后区的网球村和选手们亲密接触一天。
我们今年过的比较低调,也是因为今年一直马不停蹄的旅游,财力精力都消耗了不少,也就趁机休息休息,享受曼哈顿难有的人少的消停,好像在北京城里过春节,外地人都回家了的那种感觉。老天爷很给面子,小长假天天好天气。这张照片是在曼哈顿最西南端的A码头。以自由女神像作为远处的背景,这是纽约市在2012年sandy风暴之后建起来的休憩地点。联排的哈德逊河畔酒吧及餐厅,还有现场DJ调音乐,夕阳西下时的小子氛围十足。
先写这么多算是个开始。离开家一个人奔波了这么多年,日子匆匆的就过去了,回想起来总觉得经历了很多记录的却很少,和父母的交流也越来越少。希望通过一些短短的几笔能够填一填这个空缺。就算是断断续续的心路历程,总要比只会感叹时光飞逝的好。

When Things Fall Apart

 

Sharing one of my ‘dharma talks’ back in Jan 2016 as I was crossing the threshold of being a yoga teacher training rookie, and beginning to really physically understand the alignment points, and psychologically tune inward to maneuver in the concrete jungle.         

Dharma talk on Pema Chodron’s When Things Fall Apart – 1/23/2016

This is the second draft of the dharma talk, as just when I finished my first draft, my world really fell apart and it was through reading the section in the book once more, and asana and pranayama practice that I found the encouragement and support for myself again.

It happened on the fourth business day of 2016, when everyone was still in the celebration mood of the new year and embracing reluctantly the fact that the bitter cold winter really came. My boss pulled me out of a team meeting, and told me that my role at the team had been eliminated due to strategic restructuring, and I need to pack my personal belongings and leave immediately. There it was, my world fell apart. I moved from Asia to New York for this job; I met and married my husband through this job; I built a book of client relationships that I truly cared and treasured in the last seven years on the job. That was my dream job on Wall Street… In the next few days, I tried to hold it up together and focus on my future plan, but whenever that mixed feeling of confusion, disappointment, anger and frustration hit me, tears would cloud my eyes in less than a second.

‘We are never going to know if we are going to fall flat or sit up tall.’ Pema Chodron said in her book. ‘Life is a good teacher and a good friend. Nothing ever sums itself up in the way that we like to dream about. The off-center, in-between state is an ideal situation, a situation in which we don’t get caught and we can open our hearts and minds beyond limit.’ I can let myself drown by the ‘dark side of the worldly dhamas of pain, loss, disgrace or blame’, or I can take this opportunity to think about what I really want to achieve in the next stage of my career.

‘Disappointment occurs when there is attachment to outcomes’. However, if we can understand that the outcomes are themselves transitional, can the emotional setback be temporary and turned around into something better? The most important knowledge that I took away from yoga teaching training so far is recognize differences and embrace impermanence. Everyone’s body and mental status are born and grown different, and every yoga pose is not meant to be practiced perfectly by everyone. We will have to, through practice, recognize the features of our own bodies and make adjustments to find the variation that works the best for us. And that status is evolving and in constant transition itself, requiring us to re-practice, re-recognize, re-adjust and re-settle with our body and mind all the time. I remember how I calmed myself down when I got frustrated at not being able to kick into an adho muhka vrksasana against the wall – I welcomed the transition and opened my mind to it to find out why I couldn’t do it. In the following days of practice, I paid special attention to the openness of the chest, the operation of the shoulder girdle, the strength of legs and the alignment of the pelvis. At the point where I could actually kick into a handstand, I was surprised that it didn’t even matter to me that much anymore. I knew it was yet again a transition, and focused more on the ease of breath in the pose, the physical consistency and psychological persistency.

‘It’s a transformative experience to simply pause instead of immediately filling up the space. By waiting, we begin to connect with fundamental restlessness as well as fundamental spaciousness’. Living in the concrete jungle, we are used to rushing to finish something and moving on to the next agenda. Our comfort zone is when we accomplish something. We need to plant a voice in our heart to tell us that it’s ok to not achieve it at this moment – It is perhaps ok for me not to have my dream job now – back off from our attachment to competitiveness and simply recognize it as a transition. It could very well become the constant motivation for us to live with more courage in a more spacious world.

‘How we stay in the middle between indulging and repressing is by acknowledging whatever arises without judgement, and going back to the openness of this very present moment’. Welcome the transition, embrace the challenges. When you are the weakest and most vulnerable is when you find your strongest self.

All those Adho Muhkas

Be warned… 200 hour yoga teacher training is only the start. The physical and psychological (to some extent spiritual) transformation is gradual but intense at the same time. In the studios, you have developed a deep relationship with your peers before you even realize it – you can tell their breath pattern, the habitual way of the allocation of weight when standing, are they tuckers or tilters, or who have tight hips but maybe super flexible hamstrings  (yes those are different things)…; Outside of the studios, while waiting for subways, without noticing it, you start to place your hands on your pelvis to adjust the tilt and then on the sacrum to lengthen the tailbone, and if the train is still not there yet, you continue to investigate the rotation of the legs and the weight on the arches of feet, and the connection of all those with your breathing at the very moment… That’s just a taste of how significant that transformation is…

When things fall apart

Sharing one of my ‘dharma talks’ back in Jan 2016 as I was crossing the threshold of being a yoga teacher training rookie, and beginning to really physically understand the alignment points, and psychologically tune inward to maneuver in the concrete jungle.         

Dharma talk on Pema Chodron’s When Things Fall Apart – 1/23/2016

This is the second draft of the dharma talk, as just when I finished my first draft, my world really fell apart and it was through reading the section in the book once more, and asana and pranayama practice that I found the encouragement and support for myself again.

It happened on the fourth business day of 2016, when everyone was still in the celebration mood of the new year and embracing reluctantly the fact that the bitter cold winter really came. My boss pulled me out of a team meeting, and told me that my role at the team had been eliminated due to strategic restructuring, and I need to pack my personal belongings and leave immediately. There it was, my world fell apart. I moved from Asia to New York for this job; I met and married my husband through this job; I built a book of client relationships that I truly cared and treasured in the last seven years on the job. That was my dream job on Wall Street… In the next few days, I tried to hold it up together and focus on my future plan, but whenever that mixed feeling of confusion, disappointment, anger and frustration hit me, tears would cloud my eyes in less than a second.

‘We are never going to know if we are going to fall flat or sit up tall.’ Pema Chodron said in her book. ‘Life is a good teacher and a good friend. Nothing ever sums itself up in the way that we like to dream about. The off-center, in-between state is an ideal situation, a situation in which we don’t get caught and we can open our hearts and minds beyond limit.’ I can let myself drown by the ‘dark side of the worldly dhamas of pain, loss, disgrace or blame’, or I can take this opportunity to think about what I really want to achieve in the next stage of my career.

‘Disappointment occurs when there is attachment to outcomes’. However, if we can understand that the outcomes are themselves transitional, can the emotional setback be temporary and turned around into something better? The most important knowledge that I took away from yoga teaching training so far is recognize differences and embrace impermanence. Everyone’s body and mental status are born and grown different, and every yoga pose is not meant to be practiced perfectly by everyone. We will have to, through practice, recognize the features of our own bodies and make adjustments to find the variation that works the best for us. And that status is evolving and in constant transition itself, requiring us to re-practice, re-recognize, re-adjust and re-settle with our body and mind all the time. I remember how I calmed myself down when I got frustrated at not being able to kick into an adho muhka vrksasana against the wall – I welcomed the transition and opened my mind to it to find out why I couldn’t do it. In the following days of practice, I paid special attention to the openness of the chest, the operation of the shoulder girdle, the strength of legs and the alignment of the pelvis. At the point where I could actually kick into a handstand, I was surprised that it didn’t even matter to me that much anymore. I knew it was yet again a transition, and focused more on the ease of breath in the pose, the physical consistency and psychological persistency.

‘It’s a transformative experience to simply pause instead of immediately filling up the space. By waiting, we begin to connect with fundamental restlessness as well as fundamental spaciousness’. Living in the concrete jungle, we are used to rushing to finish something and moving on to the next agenda. Our comfort zone is when we accomplish something. We need to plant a voice in our heart to tell us that it’s ok to not achieve it at this moment – It is perhaps ok for me not to have my dream job now – back off from our attachment to competitiveness and simply recognize it as a transition. It could very well become the constant motivation for us to live with more courage in a more spacious world.

‘How we stay in the middle between indulging and repressing is by acknowledging whatever arises without judgement, and going back to the openness of this very present moment’. Welcome the transition, embrace the challenges. When you are the weakest and most vulnerable is when you find your strongest self.

Repost 经历了很多,记录的太少

9/8/2015
就从今年的劳动节开始吧。美国的劳动节在九月,通常也标志暑期的结束。 多数的纽约人会选择离开城市,到长岛或者新泽西的海滩上晒太阳,或者在自家后院搞烧烤派对而度过。另外每年劳动节这个小长假期也是美国网球公开赛的第一个周末,也是很多晋级十六强过程中一些种子选手意外出局的时候,很多游客包括纽约人会专程到皇后区的网球村和选手们亲密接触一天。
我们今年过的比较低调,也是因为今年一直马不停蹄的旅游,财力精力都消耗了不少,也就趁机休息休息,享受曼哈顿难有的人少的消停,好像在北京城里过春节,外地人都回家了的那种感觉。老天爷很给面子,小长假天天好天气。这张照片是在曼哈顿最西南端的A码头。以自由女神像作为远处的背景,这是纽约市在2012年sandy风暴之后建起来的休憩地点。联排的哈德逊河畔酒吧及餐厅,还有现场DJ调音乐,夕阳西下时的小子氛围十足。
先写这么多算是个开始。离开家一个人奔波了这么多年,日子匆匆的就过去了,回想起来总觉得经历了很多记录的却很少,和父母的交流也越来越少。希望通过一些短短的几笔能够填一填这个空缺。就算是断断续续的心路历程,总要比只会感叹时光飞逝的好。